Relief in Cooling Housing Market?

The housing market is showing several signs of slowing, providing a much-needed break for potential buyers who have been waiting to jump into the market. Existing-home sales were 2.4 percent lower in the third quarter than a year ago, and the drop comes at a time when many areas are starting to see an uptick in new listings.

Home prices in many markets are no longer rising by double digits—or even single digits—annually. But with a strong economy and low unemployment, the housing dip is more of a rebalancing of the market than a sign of a downturn.

Source: “Cooling Down of Housing Market Could Be Good News for Buyers,” The Washington Post (Nov. 14, 2018)

Mortgage Rates Take a Breather

Mortgage rates mostly held stable this week, a welcome relief .

“Despite recent market volatility, mortgage rates remained steady this week,” says Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s chief economist. “The stability in mortgage rates reflects the moderation in inflationary pressures in the economy due to the lower oil prices and subdued wage growth. On the margin, lower energy costs are a positive for the home sales market, particularly for lower-middle income suburban buyers who spend proportionately more income on transportation costs.”

Freddie Mac reports the following rates for the week ending Nov. 15:

  • 30-year fixed-rate mortgages: averaged 4.94 percent, with an average 0.5 point, unchanged from last week’s average. Last year at this time, 30-year rates averaged 3.95 percent.
  • 15-year fixed-rate mortgages: averaged 4.36 percent, with an average 0.4 point, increasing slightly from last week’s 4.33 percent average. A year ago, 15-year rates averaged 3.31 percent.
Source: Freddie Mac

The Makings of a Buyer’s Market

Buyers are pulling back. Home prices have been rising too much relative to income for many would-be buyers to keep pace. Since 2011, the U.S. median home price has risen 55 percent while wages are up only 18 percent. Now, the Federal Reserve has become more aggressive against inflation; with several short-term interest rate increases over the past year. A monthly mortgage payment on a typical home today is $1,136, up from $639 in 2011.

And confidence is down. Only 38 percent of consumers today strongly believe it’s a good time to buy, down from 43 percent last year, and the numbers are lower for renters who don’t have equity to tap for a down payment.

With buyers stepping back a bit, inventory is no longer falling. New-home construction is increasing and more homeowners are considering listing. A recent survey NAR conducted shows 50 percent of consumers strongly indicate it is a good time to sell, compared to only 28 percent just two years ago. Most home sellers will also be buyers. With inventory expected to grow, prices will stop rising so fast. That’s a healthy adjustment. Buyers can soon resume their search for the American dream.

Source: magazine.realtor/news-and-commentary/economy/article/2018/10/the-makings-of-a-buyer-s-market?

Homes with Patios now Popular

More new homes are being built with patios, as homeowners show a greater craving for more outdoor space. About 58.6 percent of new single-family homes started in 2017 included a patio, according to an analysis by the National Association of Home Builders. That makes patios more common than decks (23.8 percent), but still shy of the popularity of porches (64.7 percent).

The Annual Builder Practices Survey, conducted by Home Innovation Research Labs, shows that the average size of a patio on a new home is about 260 square feet. Poured concrete is the most often material used for the surface, followed by concrete pavers, natural stone, and brick pavers.

Read more ideas about getting the most out of a patio space: That Small Backyard Can Still Be a Selling Point and 5 Biggest Yard and Patio Staging Mistakes

Mortgage Rates Are on the Rise

Borrowers were faced with rising mortgage rates again this week, after a slight pause from increases the week before. “We expect rates to continue to rise, which will put downward pressure on home buying activity. While higher borrowing costs will keep some people out of the market, buyers with more flexibility could take advantage of the decreased competition,”  says Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s chief economist.

Freddie Mac reports these rates for the week ending Oct. 25, 2018:

  • 30-year fixed-rate mortgages: averaged 4.86 percent, with an average 0.5 point, rising slightly from last week’s 4.85 percent average. Last year at this time, 30-year rates averaged 3.94 percent.
  • 15-year fixed-rate mortgages: averaged 4.29 percent, with an average 0.4 point, rising from last week’s 4.26 percent average. A year ago, 15-year rates averaged 3.25 percent.
Source: Freddie Mac

Why Home Buyers Need to Hurry

While there have been signs recently that the market may be shifting toward the favor of home buyers, prices are still on the rise in many areas around the country. The median sales price in July was $230,411, up 5.8 percent year over year.

The typical mortgage payment jumped 13.1 percent over that same one-year period, due to a nearly 0.6 percentage point increase in mortgage rates, according to new data from CoreLogic, a real estate research firm.

Rates are expected to increase by about 0.43 percentage points between July 2018 and July 2019. Housing forecasters predict median home sale prices to continue to rise by 1.8 percent in real terms over that same period.

With these projections, CoreLogic researchers predict the inflation-adjusted typical monthly mortgage payment to rise from $937 in July 2018 to $1,003 by July 2019.

Source: “Homebuyers’ ‘Typical Mortgage Payment’ Rising at Twice the Rate of Prices,” CoreLogic Insights Blog (Oct. 17, 2018)

Some Relief With Mortgage Rates

Following weeks of gradual increases, the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage dipped slightly this week, offering a slight window of opportunity at lower borrowing costs to some would-be buyers.

“While the housing market has clearly softened in reaction to the rise in mortgage rates, the economy and consumer sentiment remains very robust and that will sustain purchase demand, particularly in affordable markets and neighborhoods,” says Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s chief economist.

Freddie Mac reports these rates for the week ending Oct. 18:

  • 30-year fixed-rate mortgages: averaged 4.85 percent, with an average 0.5 point, dropping from last week’s 4.90 percent average. Last year at this time, 30-year rates averaged 3.88 percent.
  • 15-year fixed-rate mortgages: averaged 4.26 percent, with an average 0.4 point, falling from last week’s 4.29 percent average. A year ago, averaged 3.19 percent.
Source: Freddie Mac

Zero-Down Home Loan Program

A new effort is underway to raise the low rate of home ownership among under served groups of home buyers. The Neighborhood Assistance Corp. of America is hosting several events across the country, helping borrowers with low credit scores to apply for 15- or 30-year mortgages with cheaper interest rates.

NACA CEO Bruce Marks told CNBC. “There have been zero foreclosures among the loans that we’ve originated in the past six years.”

Borrowers are required to go through an education session about the program, as well as counseling for budget planning to make sure they can afford a mortgage payment. They also must still submit all necessary documents, such as income statements amd phone bills. The program serves only those who are buying a primary residence, not an investment property.

Mortgage Rate Update!

“Rising rates paired with high and escalating home prices is putting downward pressure on purchase demand,” says Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s chief economist. “While the monthly payment remains affordable due to the still low mortgage rate environment, the primary hurdle for many borrowers is the down payment.”

Freddie Mac reports these national averages for the week ending Oct. 11:

  • 30-year fixed-rate mortgages: averaged 4.90 percent, with an average 0.5 point, rising from last week’s 4.71 percent average. Last year at this time, 30-year rates averaged 3.91 percent.
  • 15-year fixed-rate mortgages: averaged 4.29 percent, with an average 0.4 point, rising from last week’s 4.15 percent average. A year ago, 15-year rates averaged 3.21 percent.
Source: Freddie Mac

Foreclosures Sink to 13-Year Low

Foreclosures are disappearing from most community listings. Foreclosure filings—default notices, scheduled auctions, or bank repossessions—fell 6 percent in the third quarter, dropping to the lowest level since the fourth quarter of 2005. Foreclosure activity in the third quarter is now 36 percent below the pre-recession average of 278,912 properties with foreclosure filings, according to ATTOM Data Solutions’ latest report.

Properties that were foreclosed in the third quarter are seeing a slightly shorter process. The foreclosure process is averaging 713 days, which is down from 899 days a year ago. The states with the longest average timelines for foreclosed homes are Hawaii (1,491 days); Indiana (1,295 days); Florida (1,177 days); Utah (1,170 days); New Jersey (1,137 days); and New York (1,092 days).