With a boost from the first-time homebuyer tax credit, the housing market may be headed for a sustainable recovery beginning in 2010, according to NAR’s latest forecast. NAR projects existing-home sales to be 5.01 million in 2009, up 2.0 percent from a year ago, before rising 13.6 percent to 5.69 million in 2010. New-home sales are also expected to rebound, rising from 397,000 in 2009 to 549,000 next year. First-time buyers are leading the recovery, accounting for 47 percent of all home sales over the past year, up from 41 percent from a year ago.
Home prices will begin to stabilize in 2010. “We’ve seen a steady downtrend in housing inventory for well over a year, and home prices appear to be in the early stages of stabilizing,” says NAR chief economist Lawrence Yun. “With expansion of the tax credit to additional buyers through the middle of next year, and no major unforeseen events impacting the economy, home prices should rise between 3 percent and 5 percent in 2010, but with wide geographic differences,” Yun says.
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