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California home sales and median price are predicted to improve only slightly in 2012, as the continuation of the tepid economic recovery, uncertainty about the future, and funding challenges forare expected to keep the market moving sideways, with little foreseeable momentum in either direction, according to C.A.R.’s “2012 California Housing Market Forecast” released Tuesday.

The forecast, which was presented today by C.A.R. Chief Economist Leslie Appleton-Young during her luncheon at CALIFORNIA REALTOR® EXPO 2011, says that California home sales next year is for a slight 1 percent increase to 496,200 units, following essentially flat sales of 491,100 homes this year compared to the 491,500 homes sold in 2010.

The California median home price will increase 1.7 percent in 2012 to $296,000 in 2012, according to the forecast.  Following a double-digit increase in the median price in 2010, the median home price will decrease a projected 4 percent in 2011 to $291,000. This seems to be in line with the Placerville, El Dorado County, California regions.

“2012 will be another transition year for the California housing market, as the continued uncertainty about the U.S. financial system, job growth, and the stability of the overall economy remain in the forefront for all market participants,” said Appleton-Young.  “An improvement in job growth, consumer spending, and corresponding gains in housing are essential to a broader recovery in the economy, but would-be buyers will remain cautious as they weigh these myriad uncertainties against the clear opportunities presented by today’s very affordable housing market.”

Video and more information at: http://www.car.org/newsstand/newsreleases/2011newsreleases/2012forecast/

Pending home sales jumped in October, showing a positive uptrend since bottoming in June.

The Pending Home Sales Index, a forward-looking indicator, rose 10.4 percent to 89.3 based on contracts signed in October from 80.9 in September. The index remains 20.5 percent below a surge to a cyclical peak of 112.4 in October 2009, which was the highest level since May 2006 when it hit 112.6.

Last October, first-time buyers were motivated to make offers before the initial contract deadline for the tax credit last November. The data reflects contracts and not closings, which normally occur with a lag time of one or two months. Lawrence Yun, National Association of Realtors chief economist, said excellent housing affordability conditions are drawing home buyers. “It is welcoming to see a solid double-digit percentage gain, but activity needs to improve further to reach healthy, sustainable levels. The housing market clearly is in a recovery phase and will be uneven at times, but the improving job market and consequential boost to household formation will help the recovery process going into 2011,” he said.

“More importantly, a return to more normal loan underwriting standards and removal of unnecessary underwriting fees for very low risk borrowers is needed and could quickly help in the housing and economic recovery,” Yun said. Recent loan performance data from Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac clearly demonstrates very low default rates on recently originated mortgages, much lower that the vintages of 2002 and 2003 before the housing boom.
The PHSI in the Northeast jumped 19.6 percent to 71.3 in October but is 27.3 percent below the tax credit peak in October 2009. In the Midwest the index surged 27.3 percent in October to 81.7 but is 24.8 percent below a year ago. Pending home sales in the South rose 7.1 percent to an index of 93.8 but are 18.4 percent below October 2009. In the West the index slipped 0.4 percent to 104.3 and is 15.6 percent below a year ago.

Near term, Yun expects home sales will continue to climb from their cyclical low this past summer. “Even so, we now have some consumer concerns regarding the mortgage interest deduction, an important component in housing affordability,” he said. “Preliminary results of a new survey show nearly three out of four home owners and two out of three renters consider the mortgage interest deduction to be extremely or very important to them. Home owners already pay between 80 and 90 percent of all federal income taxes and additional tax burden would hurt them and the economic recovery, so we have a reasonable hope that it will not be changed.”

Source: National Association of Realtors - NAR

Both the CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® (C.A.R.) and the NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® (NAR) released monthly housing reports this week. However, each report told a different story about the housing market. Nationally, home sales declined but in California home sales rose 14.1 percent in May compared with April and 1.2 percent compared with April 2009.

KEEP THIS IN MIND

• The median price of existing single-family homes in California in May was $324,430, a 23.2 percent increase compared with a median price of $263,440 in May 2009, C.A.R. reported. The May 2010 median price increased 5.9 percent compared with April’s $306,230 median price.

• While home prices are rising month-over-month and year-over-year, affordability continues to remain at near-record highs. In the first quarter of 2010, 66 percent of first-time home buyers in California could afford to purchase an entry-level home in the state, according to C.A.R.’s First-time Buyer Housing Affordability Index.

• Many first-time home buyers timed the opening and closing of escrow to capitalize on both the federal and state tax credits, resulting in a rise in home sales in May. Although home sales rose, the number of home buyers signing sales contracts declined nearly 17 percent compared with April, which C.A.R. Chief Economist Leslie Appleton-Young attributes to the ending of the federal tax credit. “Although there may be a lessening of demand compared with the first half of this year, the number of escrows opened on a year-to-date basis is about the same as last year, and sales for all of 2010 will be on a par or slightly below last year,” said Appleton-Young.

• Despite the number of foreclosures listed for sale, the inventory of homes for sale still is below the long-run average of 7-months, according to C.A.R. In May, C.A.R.’s Unsold Inventory Index for existing, single-family detached homes was 4.6 months, unchanged from the same period a year ago. The index indicates the number of months needed to deplete the supply of homes on the market at the current sales rate.

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http://www.sgvtribune.com/ci_15353779#ixzz0rht9SqsU