Higher Rates Could Raise Housing Costs 15%

If mortgage rate forecasts pan out, home buyers might see their mortgage payments grow by 15 percent this year, according to a new analysis by CoreLogic, a real estate data firm.

CoreLogic economists predict that mortgage rates will increase by about 0.85 percentage points between November 2017 and November 2018. The median sales price of a home is projected to increase 2.6 percent in real terms over that same period.

Based on that, CoreLogic researchers predict that the inflation-adjusted typical mortgage payment will increase from $804 in November 2017 to $910 by November 2018, a 13.3 percent year-over-year gain. In nominal terms, CoreLogic researchers say the typical mortgage payment’s year-over-year increase would be 15.5 percent.

Source: “Forecast Suggests Homeowners’ ‘Typical Mortgage Payment’ Could Rise Over 15 Percent this Year,” CoreLogic Insights Blog (Feb. 15, 2018)

Homes are a Better Investment than Retirement Savings

Americans want to buy homes and they want to buy them as an investment option. According to a study on homebuyers by NerdWallet, a personal finance website, 75 percent Americans say that buying a home was a priority for them. NerdWallet analyzed data of more than 2,000 adults surveyed, the company’s mortgage calculator, data from the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB), and other sources to develop the study on current home buying sentiments, concerns, and outlook.

The study found that most Americans considered buying a home as a good investment with 64 percent of the people surveyed citing this as a reason to buy a home. And it’s not only the older generation that feels this way. Around 56 percent millennials felt that they would rather own a home that appreciated in value than have more money in retirement savings, reflecting the sentiment of 52 percent of the overall people surveyed.

In fact, according to the survey, 82 percent millennials said that buying a home was a priority compared with 75 percent of generation X and 69 percent of baby boomers. Millennials also aspired to buy more homes, on average throughout their lifetime and were most likely to say that they would like to buy a home to rent out for extra income.

Source: dsnews.com/daily-dose/02-01-2018

Builders Reveal Top 10 Biggest Concerns

Homebuilding is still falling short in many markets in alleviating the shrinking inventories of homes for sale. But builders are blaming the construction shortfall on several factors.

Builders revealed the following top 10 “significant” increases in cost problems they expect to face in 2018, according to the National Association of Home Builders and Wells Fargo Housing Market Index:

  1. Cost/availability of labor: 84%
  2. Building material prices: 84%
  3. Cost/availability of developed lots: 62%
  4. Impact/hook up/inspection or other fees: 60%
  5. Local/state environment regulations and policies: 45%
  6. Inaccurate appraisals: 42%
  7. Federal environment regulations and policies: 42%
  8. Difficulty obtaining zoning/permit approval: 42%
  9. Gridlock/uncertainty in Washington making buyers cautious: 42%
  10. Development standards (parling, setbacks, etc.): 38%

Source: “Building Materials Prices and Labor Access Top Challenges for 2018,” National Association of Home Builders’ Eye on Housing blog (Jan. 16, 2018)

‘Aging in Place’ Begins Early: Report

Homeowners are getting older, and to continue on in their current house, improvements are necessary.

Homeowners at an earlier stage, aged 55-75, are also making modifications, but not necessarily due to aging concerns (though they are, fortuitously, ideal for just that). These include adding automated features like a programmable thermostat or voice activation, and, in bathrooms, grab bars and higher toilets. According to a HomeAdvisor report. The most common remodels, the report shows:

 

  • Add Lever-Style Doorknobs
  • Add Pull-Out Shelves
  • Add a Smart Fire Detection System
  • Add a Smart Security System
  • Replace Stone/Tile With Carpet/Wood

Other key improvements to consider, the report shows:

  • Lighting
  • Modifications in Shower (Bench, threshold)
  • Moving Master Bedroom to First Floor
  • Ramps
  • Wider Doorways

Source: HomeAdvisor

 

 

Retirees Still Face Years of Mortgage Payments

Fewer retirees own their home free and clear, as 32 percent of homeowners ages 60 to 70 say it will take them more than another eight years to pay off their mortgage, according to American Financing’s Retirement and Mortgages survey.

However, many say they intend to age in place, with 64 percent indicating they plan to remain in their current home. Seventy-one percent say they would prefer to make home renovations rather than move, even if a health issue affected their mobility and comfort at home. However, 48 percent say they are unsure what they would do if their retirement funds ran low, making modifications questionable?

“With so many older Americans carrying mortgage debt with them later in life—and many expressing uncertainty about their financial future—this could very well prove to be an increasing concern among retirees,” according to American Financing’s report. It highlights several options for retirees, such as refinancing a mortgage or reverse mortgages. The report showed that only 19 percent of respondents knew what a reverse mortgage is.

Source: “Does Your Mortgage Retire With You?” American Financing (2018)

Mortgage Rates Ring in New Year With a Dip

Borrowers kicked off 2018 with a mortgage rate drop.  The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage is now down a quarter of a percentage point from a year ago.

“The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage fell four basis points from a week ago to 3.95 percent in the year’s first survey. Despite increases in short-term interest rates, long-term interest rates remain subdued.”  says Len Kiefer, Freddie Mac’s deputy chief economist.

Freddie Mac reports the following national averages for the week ending Jan. 4:

  • 30-year fixed-rate mortgages: averaged 3.95 percent, with an average 0.5 point, dropping from last week’s 3.99 percent average. Last year at this time, 30-year rates averaged 4.20 percent.
  • 15-year fixed-rate mortgages: averaged 3.38 percent, with an average 0.5 point, dropping from last week’s 3.44 percent average. A year ago, 15-year ARMs averaged 3.44 percent.

Source: Freddie Mac

Deeper Debt Isn’t Stopping Millennial Buyers

Millennials are taking out the greatest share of all new mortgages and buying homes across price ranges. But a new study also shows they’re going more into debt at an alarming rate.

Realtor.com®’s research team analyzed records for more than 3.2 million mortgages originated from January 2013 to October 2017 and divided it by age groups.

Compared to other generations, millennials are narrowing the gap in the price of homes they’re purchasing. In September, millennials obtained mortgages on homes with a median purchase price of $237,000. Generation Xers (born between 1965 and 1981) purchased homes with mortgages on a median price of $280,000, and baby boomers (born between 1946 and 1964) purchased at $258,000.

Millennials are making down payments nearly as high as Generation Xers. The average down payment for a millennial originated mortgage is 9.1 percent. Gen X buyers have been making down payments of 11 percent, since early 2013.

Source: “Millennials Are Taking Over Real Estate—But They’re Going Deeper Into Debt Too,” realtor.com® (Dec. 5, 2017)

FHFA Raises Conforming Home Loan Limits

The Federal Housing Finance Agency announced it will raise its conforming loan limit on Jan. 1, 2018. Mortgage financing giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac will allow maximum conforming loan limits for mortgages in most parts of the U.S. to be $453,100.  “El Dorado County, CA.” will be $517,500.

For 10 years, the FHFA had set the conforming loan limit in most places at $417,000. But as home prices started rising, the FHFA bumped up the conforming loan limit in 2017 to $424,100. As prices continued to move higher this year, the FHFA has raised limits again for 2018.

The Housing and Economic Recovery Act requires the conforming loan limit of the government-sponsored entities to be adjusted each year to reflect any changes in the average U.S. home price.

Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency

Lift in Housing Starts Indicates Inventory Relief

Housing starts neared their postrecession high in October, with expectations that the new-home market will soon provide much-needed inventory relief, the Commerce Department reports.

Starts, which reflect combined totals within the single-family and multifamily sectors, jumped 13.7 percent in October to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.29 million. That’s the highest reading for new-home production since October 2016, when starts had reached a high of 1.33 million.

Starts for single-family homes in October increased 5.3 percent last month, reaching a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 877,000. They are now up 8.4 percent from a year ago. Multifamily starts surged nearly 37 percent, reaching 413,000 units in October after a weak September production report.

 

Source: National Association of Home Builders

Rates Hit Pause, Consumers Rush to Lock In?

A slight dip in interest rates last week brought more homeowners and home buyers to the mortgage market. More homeowners were quick to refinance before interest rates rise again, and home buyers were able to lock in lower rates during the week.

The Mortgage Bankers Association reported that total mortgage application volume—which includes for refinancings and home purchases—rose 3.1 percent last week on a seasonally adjusted basis. Mortgage applications, however, still remain 8.5 percent below a year ago.

Additional data at: “Weekly Mortgage Applications Rise as Rates Briefly Fall Back,” CNBC (Nov. 15, 2017)