Higher Rates Could Raise Housing Costs 15%

If mortgage rate forecasts pan out, home buyers might see their mortgage payments grow by 15 percent this year, according to a new analysis by CoreLogic, a real estate data firm.

CoreLogic economists predict that mortgage rates will increase by about 0.85 percentage points between November 2017 and November 2018. The median sales price of a home is projected to increase 2.6 percent in real terms over that same period.

Based on that, CoreLogic researchers predict that the inflation-adjusted typical mortgage payment will increase from $804 in November 2017 to $910 by November 2018, a 13.3 percent year-over-year gain. In nominal terms, CoreLogic researchers say the typical mortgage payment’s year-over-year increase would be 15.5 percent.

Source: “Forecast Suggests Homeowners’ ‘Typical Mortgage Payment’ Could Rise Over 15 Percent this Year,” CoreLogic Insights Blog (Feb. 15, 2018)

‘Tiny Homes’ May Have a Wider Buyer Pool

A new survey confirms that consumers are definitely intrigued by smaller homes, often described as less than 600 square feet. More than half of adults recently surveyed–or 53 percent—said “yes” or “maybe” when asked if they would ever consider the possibility of buying such a small home, according to a recent study by the National Association of Home Builders. That means a majority of adults would consider moving into a tiny home at some point in the future, the NAHB notes.

Younger generations tend to find tiny homes more appealing than older age groups. More than half of millennials and Generation X members said they were open to the idea of a tiny home. However, only 45 percent of baby boomers and 29 percent of seniors said they’d be willing to entertain the idea.

But local zoning laws may curtail the prevalence of just how big the tiny-home movement gets. However, there has been a recent momentum among some local jurisdictions to relax some of those restrictions.

Source: “Tiny Homes Have Potential Buyers,” National Association of Home Builders’ Eye on Housing blog (Feb. 7, 2018)

Is Market Volatility Giving Buyers Cold Feet?

It seems a 1,000-plus point drop in the stock market last week mixed with rising interest rates may have been enough to give homeowners and buyers the jitters. Overall mortgage applications last week dipped 4.1 percent week over week on a seasonally adjusted basis, the Mortgage Bankers Association reported Wednesday.

Broken out, mortgage applications for home purchases plunged 6 percent last week. However, that number is still 4 percent higher than last year. Home buyers complain of weakened affordability and lengthier home searches in research released this week by the National Association of Home Builders. Refinance applications dipped 2 percent last week, but they remain 2.8 percent higher than the same week a year ago.

Mortgage rates continue to move upwards. Last week the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rose to its highest rate since January 2014, averaging 4.57 percent, the MBA reported.

Source: “Stock Jitters and Higher Interest Rates Drive Weekly Mortgage Applications Down 4.1%,” CNBC (Feb. 14, 2018)

Don’t Panic Over Stock Market Mayhem

The housing market likely won’t be deeply affected by the sharp decline in stocks over the last two days because underlying economic fundamentals remain strong, says Lawrence Yun, chief economist for the National Association of REALTORS®. Jobs are being created, workers are seeing wage gains, and there’s no recession on the horizon.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 stock index fell by more than 4 percent Monday, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average declined nearly 5 percent. As of late Tuesday, the S&P was down by almost 1.2 percent since the first of the year, although that comes after a year of double-digit gains.

One metric to watch is long-term bond rates, which historically have gone up as stocks go down. That link, however, hasn’t been as strong in the past few years. Investors tend to increase demand in bonds as an alternative to stocks, driving up yields, which can lead to higher mortgage rates. Since the start of the year, the average rate on a 30-year mortgage has risen, from 3.95 percent to 4.22 percent, according to Freddie Mac. That’s still low by historical standards.

—REALTOR® Magazine

Fed Move Doesn’t Suppress Mortgage Rates

The Federal Reserve may have voted to leave its short-term interest rates unchanged this week, but that didn’t stop lenders from moving up mortgage rates. Average mortgage rates are continuing an upward trend in 2018.

“The Federal Reserve did not hike rates this week, but the market views future hikes as a near certainty,” says Len Kiefer, deputy chief economist at Freddie Mac. “The expectation of future Fed rate hikes and increased borrowing by the U.S. Treasury is putting upward pressure on interest rates.”

Freddie Mac reports the following national averages for the week ending Feb. 1:

  • 30-year fixed-rate mortgages: averaged 4.22 percent, with an average 0.5 point, rising from last week’s 4.15 percent average. Last year at this time, 30-year rates averaged 4.19 percent.
  • 15-year fixed-rate mortgages: averaged 3.68 percent, with an average 0.5 point, increasing from last week’s 3.62 percent average. A year ago, 15-year rates averaged 3.41 percent.

Source: Freddie Mac

Cash Sales Soar to Post-Recession High

Cash sales accounted for 8 percent of new-home sales in the fourth quarter of 2017, matching a high that has not been seen since 2014, the National Association of Home Builders reports on its Eye on Housing blog. Cash sales make up an even larger share of existing-home sales—about 20 percent in December, according to the National Association of REALTORS®.

Cash hardly makes up the bulk of financing options for buyers, however. The share of new homes financed with conventional mortgages has dropped slightly from 73.2 percent to 72.7 percent. In the fourth quarter of 2017, 12.9 percent of new-home buyers used FHA loans. The share of sales financed with FHA-backed mortgages has dropped 4 percentage points since reaching a peak in the second quarter of 2015.

Source: “Cash Sales Tie Post-Recession High,” National Association of Home Builders’ Eye on Housing blog (Jan. 26, 2018)

Millennials Are Saving More Than You Think

Millennials have been stereotyped as a generation that lacks savings or money management skills. But the data isn’t backing that up.

Sixteen percent of millennials ages 23 to 37 have $100,000 or more in savings, which is double the number of young people who had that much stowed away in 2015, a newly released survey from Bank of America shows. Nearly half—or 47 percent—have $15,000 saved, up from 33 percent in 2015.

63 percent of millennials surveyed say they are saving, compared to 64 percent of Generation X and 75 percent of baby boomers. Fifty-four percent of millennials say they have a budget; 60 percent say they “feel financially secure.” The top priorities for their savings: in case of an emergency (64%), retirement (49%), and buying a house (33%).

Source: “2018 Better Money Habits Millennial Report,” Bank of America (Winter 2018) and “Millennials: 1 in 6 Now Have $100,000 Socked Away,” USA Today (Jan. 23, 2018)

Foreclosed Homes Dip to 12-Year Low

Foreclosures hit a 12-year low in 2017, and the distressed properties remain increasingly difficult to find in many markets. Foreclosure filings in 2017—which include default notices, scheduled auctions, and bank repossessions—dropped to the lowest level since 2005.

Foreclosure starts are at a new record low nationwide. Lenders started the foreclosure process on 383,701 properties in 2017, down a whopping 82 percent from a peak of more than 2 million in 2009. That marks a new all-time low for foreclosure start data since ATTOM Data Solutions began collecting such data in 2006.

Source: DAILY REAL ESTATE NEWS | THURSDAY, JANUARY 18, 2018

Builders Reveal Top 10 Biggest Concerns

Homebuilding is still falling short in many markets in alleviating the shrinking inventories of homes for sale. But builders are blaming the construction shortfall on several factors.

Builders revealed the following top 10 “significant” increases in cost problems they expect to face in 2018, according to the National Association of Home Builders and Wells Fargo Housing Market Index:

  1. Cost/availability of labor: 84%
  2. Building material prices: 84%
  3. Cost/availability of developed lots: 62%
  4. Impact/hook up/inspection or other fees: 60%
  5. Local/state environment regulations and policies: 45%
  6. Inaccurate appraisals: 42%
  7. Federal environment regulations and policies: 42%
  8. Difficulty obtaining zoning/permit approval: 42%
  9. Gridlock/uncertainty in Washington making buyers cautious: 42%
  10. Development standards (parling, setbacks, etc.): 38%

Source: “Building Materials Prices and Labor Access Top Challenges for 2018,” National Association of Home Builders’ Eye on Housing blog (Jan. 16, 2018)

Retirees Still Face Years of Mortgage Payments

Fewer retirees own their home free and clear, as 32 percent of homeowners ages 60 to 70 say it will take them more than another eight years to pay off their mortgage, according to American Financing’s Retirement and Mortgages survey.

However, many say they intend to age in place, with 64 percent indicating they plan to remain in their current home. Seventy-one percent say they would prefer to make home renovations rather than move, even if a health issue affected their mobility and comfort at home. However, 48 percent say they are unsure what they would do if their retirement funds ran low, making modifications questionable?

“With so many older Americans carrying mortgage debt with them later in life—and many expressing uncertainty about their financial future—this could very well prove to be an increasing concern among retirees,” according to American Financing’s report. It highlights several options for retirees, such as refinancing a mortgage or reverse mortgages. The report showed that only 19 percent of respondents knew what a reverse mortgage is.

Source: “Does Your Mortgage Retire With You?” American Financing (2018)