Mortgage Rates Stay Steady

“This week the economy sent mixed signals, leaving mortgage rates unchanged,” says Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s chief economist. “Survey data for manufacturing and service industries varied while construction spending fell modestly. However, homebuyer demand continued to improve, rising eight percent. Clearly, home buyers remain bullish on the real estate market.”

Freddie Mac reports the following national averages for the week ending Dec. 5:

  • 30-year fixed-rate mortgages: averaged 3.68%, with an average 0.5 point, holding the same as last week. Last week at this time, 30-year rates averaged 4.75%.
  • 15-year fixed-rate mortgages: averaged 3.14%, with an average 0.4 point, falling slightly from last week’s 3.15% average. A year ago, they averaged 4.21%.
  • 5-year hybrid adjustable-rate mortgages: averaged 3.39%, with an average 0.4 point, falling from last week’s 3.43% average. A year ago, they averaged 4.07%.
Source: Freddie Mac

Mortgage Prepayments Climb

Mortgage prepayments, a common gauge for housing and refinancing demand, jumped to its highest level since May 2013—a good sign for the market, according to a new analysis from data and analystics firm Black Knight. Mortgage prepayments were at 1.81% in October, more than double the figure a year ago. That represents a 134% year-over-year increase, Black Knight reports.

What’s causing the improvement? Low mortgage rates are prompting more people to refinance their mortgage or buy a home. Consumers typically pay off previous loans when they buy a new home.The uptick is apparent: Existing-home sales increased 1.9% in October to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.46 million—4.6% higher than a year ago, the National Association of REALTORS® reported last week.

Source: “Mortgage Prepays Surge to 6-Year High, Black Knight Says,” HousingWire (Nov. 25, 2019)

Drop in Mortgage Rates = Higher Home Buying Demand

Mortgage rates declined this week, After several weeks of increases, the drop in mortgage rates is a welcome sign for home buyers.

The housing market continues to steadily gain momentum with rising homebuyer demand and increased construction due to the strong job market, ebullient market sentiment, and low mortgage rates,” says Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s chief economist. “Residential real estate accounts for one-sixth of the economy, and the improving real estate market will support economic growth heading into next year.”

Freddie Mac reports the following national averages for the week ending Nov. 21:

  • 30-year fixed-rate mortgages: averaged 3.66%, with an average 0.6 point, falling from last week’s 3.75% average. Last year at this time, they averaged 4.81%.
  • 15-year fixed-rate mortgages: averaged 3.15%, with an average 0.5 point, falling from last week’s 3.20% average. A year ago, 15-year rates averaged 4.24%.
Source: Freddie Mac

Mortgage Rates Rise This Week

For the third consecutive week, the interest rate for the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage increased. The rise came despite the Federal Reserve cutting its key benchmark rate for the third time this year.

“Purchase activity continues to show strength, indicating obvious homebuyer demand,” says Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s chief economist. “However, the lack of housing supply remains a major barrier to not just the housing market but the overall economic recovery.”

Freddie Mac reports the following national rates for the week ending Oct. 31:

30-year fixed-rate mortgages: averaged 3.78%, with an average 0.5 point, rising from last week’s 3.75% average. Last year at this time, 30-year rates averaged 4.83%.

15-year fixed-rate mortgages: averaged 3.19%, with an average 0.6 point, rising from last week’s 3.18% average. A year ago, 15-year rates averaged 4.23%..

Source: Freddie Mac

Rates Increased, But Don’t Worry

No reason for home shoppers to get nervous: Economists largely predict mortgage rates will dip in the weeks ahead. Also, rates are still more than a percentage point lower than a year ago.

“Despite this week’s uptick in mortgage rates, the housing market remains on the upswing, with improvement in construction and home sales,” says Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s chief economist. “While there has been a material weakness in manufacturing and consistent trade uncertainty, other economic trends like employment and homebuilder sentiment are encouraging.”

Freddie Mac reports the following national averages for the week ending Oct. 17:

  • 30-year fixed-rate mortgages: averaged 3.69%, with an average 0.6 point, rising from last week’s 3.57% average. Last year at this time, 30-year rates averaged 4.85%.
  • 15-year fixed-rate mortgages: averaged 3.15%, with an average 0.5 point, rising from a 3.05% average last week. A year ago, they averaged 4.26%..
Source: Freddie Mac

Blame Housing If Recession Hits?

Economists say that if the country goes into recession, it won’t be the real estate market’s fault. While a slowdown in housing was largely blamed for the Great Recession, economics this time around does not correlate with weakness in the real estate sector.

In fact, it’s the opposite: The housing market has gotten a boost this fall, with more robust existing-home sales and an uptick in new-home construction. Buyers are being drawn to the market by lower mortgage rates, housing analysts say. “Housing is a critical sector because it acts as a multiplier by touching a wide swath of industries, from construction to financial services to home-improvement and appliance sales,” NBC News reports.

Mortgage applications have been on the rise since interest rates have decreased in recent weeks. The lower rates are giving home buyers an average of about $50,000 more in “purchase ability,” Todd Teta, chief product officer at ATTOM Data Solutions, told NBC. “It allows people to buy more home. That is meaningful on an absolute dollar basis for a lot of buyers.”

Source: “Recession Coming? Don’t Blame Housing,” NBC News (Oct. 8, 2019)

Mortgage Rates ‘Are Dropping’

The 30-year fixed-mortgage fell 8 basis points this week, averaging 3.57%, Freddie Mac reports. The lower rates are drawing out more home buyers in the fall market.

“The 50-year low in the unemployment rate combined with low mortgage rates has led to increased home buyer demand this year. Much of this strength is coming from entry-level buyers—the first-time home buyer share of the loans Freddie Mac purchased in 2019 is 46%, a two-decade high,” says Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s chief economist.

Freddie Mac reports the following national averages for the week ending Oct. 10:

  • 30-year fixed-rate mortgages: averaged 3.57%, with an average 0.6 point, falling from last week’s 3.65% average. Last year the 30-year rates averaged 4.90%.
  • 15-year fixed-rate mortgages: averaged 3.05%, with an average 0.5 point, falling from last week’s 3.14% average. A year ago, 15-year rates averaged 4.29%.
Source: Freddie Mac

Home Loan Rates Hold Firm

Home buyers looking for a purchase loan and homeowners who want to refinance are responding well to low mortgage rates. “While mortgage rates generally held steady this week, overall mortgage demand remained very strong, rising over 50% from a year ago thanks to increases in both refinance and purchase mortgage applications,” says Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s chief economist.

Freddie Mac reports the following national averages for the week ending Oct. 3:

  • 30-year fixed-rate mortgages: averaged 3.65%, with an average 0.6 point, up slightly from last week’s 3.64% average. Last year, 30-year rates averaged 4.71%.
  • 15-year fixed-rate mortgages: averaged 3.14%, with an average 0.5 point, falling from last week’s 3.16% average. A year ago, 15-year rates averaged 4.15%.
  • 5-year hybrid adjustable-rate mortgages: averaged 3.38%, with an average 0.4 point, unchanged from last week’s average. A year ago, they averaged 4.01%.
Source: Freddie Mac

Mortgage Rates Recede Last Week

September has proven to be the most volatile month for the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage since March. Average weekly movement on rates has fluctuated 11 basis points in that time, Freddie Mac reports. This week, mortgage rates fell after posting the largest uptick in nearly a year last week.

Freddie Mac reported national averages for the week ending Sept. 26:

  • 30-year fixed-rate mortgages averaged 3.64%, with an average 0.6 point, falling from last week’s 3.73% average. Last year at this time, rates averaged 4.72%.
  • 15-year fixed-rate mortgages averaged 3.16%, with an average 0.5 point, falling from last week’s 3.21% average. A year ago, 15-year rates averaged 4.16%.
  • 5-year hybrid adjustable-rate mortgages averaged 3.38%, with an average 0.4 point, falling from last week’s 3.49% average. A year ago,  ARMs averaged 3.97%.
Source: Freddie Mac

Home Ownership Market Survey

Low mortgage rates are fueling more favorable opinions on home buying. Nearly two-thirds of Americans—or 63%—believe now is a good time to buy a home, shows the National Association of REALTORS®’ newly released Housing Opportunities and Market Experience Survey, reflecting more than 2,700 consumer responses from the third quarter. Thirty-four percent in the third quarter said they “strongly” believe now is a good time to buy, which is down slightly from the previous quarter.

NAR’s Chief Economist Lawrence Yun offers a cautionary response to the favorable findings. “The fact that slightly fewer are expressing strong intensity compared to recent prior quarters is implying some would-be buyers have concerns about the direction of the economy,” Yun says. Fewer of the respondents—52%—believe the U.S. economy is improving. Millennials tended to be the most pessimistic about the direction over the economy.

Older consumers with higher incomes tended to be the most optimistic over the prospects of homebuying. The silent generation (those born between 1925 and 1945) were the most upbeat about buying at 75%, followed closely by older baby boomers (those born between 1946 and 1954) at 72%, the study showed. Further, 72% of consumers with incomes of $100,000 felt now is a good time to buy compared to 54% of consumers with incomes under $50,000.

Source: “2019 Q3 Homeownership Opportunities and Market Experience (HOME) Survey,” National Association of REALTORS® (Sept. 23, 2019)