Welcome to the "Z" Team!

Great real estate market news to share! Mortgage rates are staying low by historical standards, despite inching slightly higher this week following a positive job report and increasing bond yields, Freddie Mac reports in its weekly mortgage market survey.

“An upbeat employment report for February caused U.S. Treasury bond yields to increase over the week, and mortgage rates followed,” says Frank Nothaft, Freddie Mac’s chief economist. “Job growth over the last six months was the strongest since 2006.”

The following is a closer look at rates for the week ending March 15:

•30-year fixed-rate mortgages: averaged 3.92 percent, with an average 0.8 point, inching up from last week’s 3.88 percent average (which was only 0.01 percent above an all-time record low). A year ago at this time, 30-year rates averaged 4.76 percent.

•15-year fixed-rate mortgages: averaged 3.16 percent, with an average 0.8 point, climbing from last week’s record reaching 3.13 percent average. Last year at this time, 15-year rates averaged 3.97 percent.

•5-year adjustable-rate mortgages: averaged 2.83 percent, with an average 0.8 point, also slightly up from last week’s 2.81 percent average. Last year, 5-year ARMs averaged 3.57 percent at this time of year.

Source: Freddie Mac

Economists say the housing market is starting to heal, but many people aren’t aware of it because they’re judging a housing recovery on the wrong sign: What’s happening with home prices? Let’s consider some other points of interest!

Paul Dales at Capital Economics says higher prices won’t be the sign that the housing market is on the mend — that can be a lagging indicator — but rather an increase in overall home sales. And that’s showing signs of improvement: Existing home sales in 2011 rose to 4.26 million compared to 4.19 million in 2010. In the last six months alone, home sales have increased 13 percent.

Please provide your thoughts of this article form Fortune pointing out, “The evidence reminds us that perhaps we should change our expectations of what a housing recovery might look like, particularly following a crisis marked by record foreclosures and a financial crisis that sent the economy into one of the deepest recessions. The recovery we have been anticipating is defined more on the rate at which the glut of vacant properties comes off the market as opposed to any steady rise in prices, which some think won’t happen for another few years.”

Source:  “The One Number to Watch for a Housing Recovery,”  Fortune (3/20/12)

Four of the the country’s 19 largest banks do not have enough capital to withstand another economic downturn, if one occurs, according to the Federal Reserve’s latest stress test for banks.

Would you have guessed the four banks at risk named in the report are Citigroup, SunTrust, Ally Financial, and MetLife?

The hypothetical stress test, conducted annually by the Federal Reserve but not usually released publicly, analyzes if banks could weather the storm if the economy saw a 21 percent reduction in home prices, 13 percent unemployment, and a 50 percent drop in stock prices. The test aims to see which banks would be able to continue to lend money to individual and businesses even if such catastrophic losses occurred.

For any banks that fail the stress test, the Fed can force them to raise money, such as by selling additional stock or issuing debt.

For the banks that did pass, they are able to raise their dividends and take action in luring more investors to their stocks. This year’s results are “clearly good news — the U.S. banking system can now withstand a quite severe recession without falling over,” Douglas Elliott, a fellow at Brookings Institution, told the Associated Press. Among the banks that passed the stress test are U.S. Bancorp, JPMorgan Chase, and Wells Fargo.

Source: “Federal Reserve Annual Stress Test Fails 4 of 19 Big Banks,” The Associated Press (March 12, 2012)

Interesting that nearly half of home owners recently polled in an online survey said they would walk away from their mortgage if home prices continued to fall. The poll included 1,000 visitors to HousingPredictor, a real estate Web site.

While the poll is unscientific, we question whether home owners are starting to grow more acceptance of the strategic default idea? Strategic default is when home owners walk away from their mortgage obligations, despite being able to make their payments.

In a similar poll in March 2010, HousingPredictor found that 32 percent said they would strategic default if prices fell further — compared to 47 percent in the most recent poll.

But for home owners who walk away from their mortgage obligations, they often do so with later regrets. Experts caution that home owners take a big hit to their credit score — a 30-day late payment alone could bring your credit score down by 100 points, says Glamis Haro, a lending manager who was interviewed by AOL Real Estate. Defaulters may also have to wait up to seven years to even apply for a mortgage again.

Source:“Strategic Default: Would Half of Home Owners Walk Away?”  AOL Real Estate (March 9, 2012)

Good news to share! Concerns over housing and the economy are subsiding, according to Fannie Mae’s National Housing Survey from February.

An improving job market is a big part of what’s behind Americans feeling more confident about the housing market and the direction of the economy, according to the survey.

“The pickup in the pace of hiring over the past few months has helped soothe consumer concerns, lifting their moods regarding their personal finances, the direction of the economy, and their views on the housing market,” says Doug Duncan, chief economist of Fannie Mae. “As a result, we’ve seen more potential for economic upside, creating a more balanced near-term outlook.”

The survey found that 28 percent of Americans expect home prices to increase over the next 12 months while 53 percent say prices will likely stay the same. Fifteen percent say they expect home prices to decline.

With low mortgage rates and falling home prices, 70 percent of those surveyed say now is a good time to purchase a home. Also, more Americans surveyed say now is a good time to sell, rising to 13 percent in February, which is the highest level in more than a year but still low by historic standards. Please share your thoughts.

Source: Fannie Mae

California median home price: January 2012: $268,280 (Source: California Association of Realtors, C.A.R.)

Highest median home price by region/county January 2012: Marin, $694,440 (Source: C.A.R.)

Lowest median home price by region/county January 2012: Tehama, $110,000 (Source: C.A.R.)

Pending Home Sales Index: January 2012: 102.4, an increase from the revised 93.1 recorded in January 2011

Traditional Housing Affordability Index: Fourth quarter 2011: 55 percent (Source: C.A.R.)

Mortgage rates: Week ending 3/1/2012 30-yr. fixed: 3.90% fees/points: 0.8% 15-yr. fixed: 3.17 fees/points: 0.8% 1-yr. adjustable: 2.72% Fees/points: 0.6% (Source: Freddie Mac)

The housing supply is expected to normalize in two to four years, Barclays Capital projects, assuming that household formation rates increase to 1.1 million and construction remains slightly above 2011 levels.

Household formation–which is a reflection of population growth and housing affordability–has drastically dropped since 2007, reaching about 300,000 to 500,000 per year. Historically, the rate is about 1.25 million.

Home prices will likely see a 1 percent appreciation this year (that’s after falling 3 to 4 percent through March), Barclays Capital estimates. It is also projecting a 1 percent price appreciation in 2013, followed by 2 percent to 3 percent appreciation levels.

But to reach those goals, the housing supply needs to continue to shrink first. Our region in the Sierra Foothills of Placerville, California is experiencing a low supply in the under $300,000. price range. This is the primary market for first time home buyers and cash investors. So we’re off to a supply, demand race for the spring market?

Source: “Barclays: Housing Supply Could Normalize in 2014,” HousingWire (3/2/12)

“Good News” to share with you! The number of home owners behind on their mortgage payments dropped to the lowest level in three years, according to a report of data from the fourth quarter of 2011 released by the Mortgage Bankers Association. 

“Mortgage performance is also improving faster than the overall economy,” says Jay Brinkmann, MBA’s chief economist. (We’re finding this is not true with some lenders.)

According to MBA, 7.6 percent of residential mortgages were at least 30 days past due on their payments in the fourth quarter of 2011. Last year, the percentage was 8.3, and the peak of 10 percent was reached in early 2010. Mortgage delinquencies usually hover around 5 percent in more stable markets. Let’s hope this trend continues.

Still, while the lower delinquencies serve as an important sign needed for a healing housing market, MBA still cautions that the number of loans in foreclosure remains high. About 4.4 percent of all loans were in foreclosure in the fourth quarter. The peak reached one year earlier was 4.6 percent.

Source: “Mortgage Delinquencies Hit Three-Year Low,” The Wall Street Journal (2/16/12)

“Mom and pop investors” are trying to capitalize on a depressed real estate market in the hopes of one day being able to cash in. An article in USA Today highlights this new breed of small-scale investors who like to buy and hold properties, opposed to the high-dollar large investment firms that once dominated the real estate market who preferred to buy and flip their property investments. 

For “mom and pop investors,” the strategy is to buy homes at rock-bottom prices, rent the properties out to cover costs of home ownership for several years, and then one day sell the homes when prices recover. “An unprecedented number of investors are looking into this,” John Burns, CEO OF John Burns Real Estate Consulting, told USA Today. We find some buy for eventual relocation to another area for retirement.

For investors in the rental market, an 8 percent annual return is fairly normal, according to Burns. “That means that someone who buys a $100,000 property — and pays cash for it — makes $8,000 a year after expenses, including maintenance and taxes,” the USA Today article notes. 

The threats of tenant or maintenance issues may be the potential to derail that potential profit, so investors need to be careful. Many of the investors we work with are cautious and seek advice from their real estate agent, property managers or other experts. 

Source: “Mom and Pop Investors Propping Up Home-Buying Market,” USA Today (Feb. 14, 2012)

We would like to share this weekly update! Rates ticked up slightly this week, but still hovered around record lows compared to historical standards, Freddie Mac reports in its weekly mortgage market survey. Hope this may be of interest to you or a friend.

“A strong January employment report added upward pressure to most mortgage rates this week,” Frank Nothaft, Freddie Mac’s chief economist, said. The unemployment rate dropped to 8.3 percent as the economy gained 243,000 jobs last month, the largest gain since April 2011. 

Here’s a closer look at rates for the week ending Feb. 9: 

• 30-year fixed-rate mortgages: averaged 3.87 percent, with an average 0.8 points. A year ago at this time, 30-year rates averaged 5.05 percent. 
• 15-year fixed-rate mortgages: averaged 3.16 percent, with an average 0.7 point, rising slightly from last week’s record low of 3.14 percent. But 15-year rates were still far below what they averaged a year ago at this time — 4.29 percent.
• 5-year adjustable-rate mortgages: averaged 2.83 percent, with an average 0.7 point, rising from last week’s 2.80 percent average. Last year at this time, 5-year ARMs averaged 3.92 percent. 

Source: Freddie Mac other news at: www.BudZeller.com or zteam4u@gmail.com