Welcome to the "Z" Team! Douglas and Bud Zeller

The number of California homes that entered the foreclosure process during the second quarter fell for the fifth straight quarter, to the lowest level since second-quarter 2007, research company MDA DataQuick reported this week.

The company reported that 70,051 notices of default were filed at county recorder offices in California during the second quarter, down 13.6 percent from the first quarter and down 43.8 percent compared to second-quarter 2009.

Also, the share of resale, foreclosed homes sold in the state dropped to 36 percent in the second quarter, down from 49.9 percent in second-quarter 2009 and 42.5 percent in first-quarter 2010. NODs, which mark the formal entry of a home into the foreclosure process in California, peaked at 135,431 in first-quarter 2009.

The share of foreclosure resales ranged from 9.5 percent in the San Francisco area to 61.7 percent in the Imperial Valley area during the second quarter, DataQuick reported.

“Obviously, motivated sellers and accommodating lenders have played a part in bringing the default filings down, especially when it comes to short sales,” said John Walsh, DataQuick president, in a statement. “Public policy has also been a factor. We also need to remember that prices have come up off bottom over the past year. If they continue to rise, fewer homeowners will find themselves underwater, which is a significant factor in letting a home go.”

The number of foreclosure sales that were cancelled in California hit an all-time record in June, according to a report released Tuesday by ForeclosureRadar, a locally based company that tracks every foreclosure in the state and provides daily auction updates.

The company characterized foreclosure activity in the Golden State as “mixed” last month, with filings of new foreclosure notices on the rise and foreclosure sales down. That assessment follows two straight months in which ForeclosureRadar reported declines across-the-board at every stage of the foreclosure process.

In total, 10,506 foreclosures were cancelled in California last month before reaching the auction sale phase, according to ForeclosureRadar’s market data. The figure represents a 27 percent increase from May and is 153 percent higher than in June 2009. ForeclosureRadar explained that the increase was primarily driven by just one lender, JP Morgan Chase and its acquisition of Washington Mutual loans.

Notices of Default filed against delinquent homeowners – the first step in the foreclosure process – edged up nearly 7 percent from May to June, ForeclosureRadar reported, but were down more than 45 percent compared to June 2009.

Notice of Trustee Sale filings, which serve as the homeowner’s final notice before the home is auctioned, increased on both a monthly and annual basis in June. Compared to the previous month, filings were up nearly 22 percent, and were nearly 12 percent above year-ago levels.

During the month of June, ForeclosureRadar tracked a total of 25,790 new Notices of Default and 34,261 Notices of Trustee Sale.

“Historically it is very unusual to have more Notice of Trustee Sale filings than Notices of Default,” said Sean O’Toole, founder and CEO of ForeclosureRadar.com. “But with skyrocketing cancellations and the possibility of failing loan modifications, this will be increasingly common, as lenders are only required to file a Notice of Trustee Sale to restart the foreclosure process.”

ForeclosureRadar’s data shows that banks took back 10,506 properties in June, nearly 24 percent fewer than they did in May. The company puts California’s total REO inventory at 85,135 homes, down from 87,964 in May and nearly 20 percent lower than it was a year ago.

The number of properties purchased by third parties at auction dropped significantly in June to 2,983, but they purchased nearly the same percentage of the total properties sold, and at a better discount to market value than ForeclosureRadar says it’s seen in months. Last month, the average bid amount on a home sold at foreclosure auction in California was 18.9 percent below market value. 

By Ken Calhoon, Broker in Placerville, California

“It is ironic, but there is a growing consensus that there may be a new housing shortage coming,” said James Gaines, a real estate economist with Texas A&M.

“A housing deficiency isn’t a sure thing, but the potential is certainly there.” says David Crowe, chief economist at the National Association of Home Builders, who paints a rather ominous picture in which house and apartment builders won’t be able to keep pace with demand.

Wishful thinking? Not according to the Census Bureau. The increased demand for new housing will come partly from new household formation, which (pre-recession) typically runs around 1.3 million new households each year. To keep pace, builders need to build 1.5 million new homes since more homes than households are needed to replace those destroyed by fires, floods, teardowns and neglect.  Not surprisingly, builders have not been keeping pace recently. This year builders will finish less than 400,000 new homes, the lowest number in the 47 years of record keeping.  

The worst recession since the depression has temporarily suppressed demand and household formation. In 2007, 600,000 households were formed, in 2008, 500,000, last year only 400,000 new households were formed. Kids are staying longer at home and some are returning to mom and dad’s to weather the economic storm. While new household demand has been stifled, the pent up demand continues to grow and will present huge opportunities when the economy recovers.    

New and surviving builders will also face an increasing regulatory environment which will increase the time to bring a new development on line and more costly to build. An example is the new California state law taking effect January 2011 requiring fire suppressant sprinklers systems installed in each new home. That can add as much as $10,000 to the cost of a new home. Being “green” also has a cost.

The Census vacancy numbers are somewhat misleading. The largest percentage of currently vacant homes and apartments is concentrated where nobody wants to live. Detroit and Chicago are not preferred relocation destinations. There is a reason the inventory is vacant. Some are second or vacation homes.

It may take a couple of years to get through our current inventory. While that’s happening, the population will continue to grow, new household formation will continue to be postponed and fewer new homes will be built. When the economy recovers, as it invariably will, there will be pent up demand for new homes but few available.

Congress passed a bill this week extending the deadline to close escrow and qualify for the federal home buyers tax credit. President Obama is expected to sign the bill extending the deadline to Sept. 30, 2010, instead of its original June 30 deadline.

KEEP THIS IN MIND!

• The bill extends the deadline to close escrow for home buyers who entered into a home purchase contract by the April 30 deadline. First-time buyers may be eligible to receive up to $8,000 and qualified existing homeowners may receive up to $6,500 if the home buyer closes escrow by Sept. 30.

• Home buyers entering into sales contracts May 1 or later are not eligible for the federal tax credit, but they may qualify for the California home buyer tax credit.

• The CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® (C.A.R.) and the NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® worked closely with members of Congress to extend the deadline. Estimates from NAR show nearly 180,000 home buyers nationwide would have missed out on the tax credit if the deadline was not extended, including nearly 17,700 home buyers in California.

• Many of the home buyers who would have missed out on the tax credit are in the midst of purchasing a short sale or foreclosure, which generally take longer to close due to the amount of paperwork involved in the transaction.

To read the full story, please click here:

http://money.cnn.com/2010/06/30/news/economy/homebuyer_tax_credit/index.htm

The overall number of El Dorado County area home sales continues to increase. The 198 April sales were the most in a single month since June of 2006. Home sales were 13 percent above March and 50 percent better than a year earlier.

Some housing economists believe the worst is over and positive forecast are coming from a variety of sources. The “National Association of Realtors” also reflects encouragement. Please view and share their new economic forecast VIDEO: 

ttp://link.brightcove.com/services/player/bcpid21418263001?bclid=4937830001&bctid=89312847001

The U.S. economy is likely to recover more quickly after this recession than it did after the previous two recessions, predicts researchers for the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.

“I see no signs of a double dip,” said John C. Williams, director of research at the San Francisco Fed. “The economy continues to gain momentum, and consumer spending and business investment continue to improve.”

The prediction goes counter to what many analysts believe, but Williams pointed to surveys that show home, car, and retail sales are up. “It’s kind of a natural part of the process — you cut back for a couple of years, and then you need to replace things eventually,” Williams said.

Source: Los Angeles Times, Alana Semuels (05/18/2010)

Many buyers, especially first-timers, hope to purchase a foreclosed property at a bargain price. While purchasing a foreclosed home can be a wise choice for some buyers, it is important that buyers understand the differences in buying at different stages of foreclosure and be prepared to take on the challenges typically associated with each.

KEEP THIS IN MIND

• There are three basic stages of foreclosure in California: Pre-foreclosure, trustee’s sale, and repossession, often called an REO or real estate owned by the bank.

• Pre-foreclosure homes are in the foreclosure process, but have not yet been auctioned. Owners of pre-foreclosed homes often try to sell the properties because they are “underwater,” meaning they owe more on the mortgage than the home currently is worth. Many homeowners attempt to sell via short sale, where the lender must agree to accept less than the amount owed on the mortgage. Buying at this stage of foreclosure often is a complicated and slow process. However, buyers of pre-foreclosed properties often are given the opportunity to inspect the home prior to purchasing, whereas this is not always the case when buying at other stages of foreclosures.

• The second basic stage of foreclosure is the public auction at a trustee’s or foreclosure sale. Homes in this stage often are well priced, but also come with challenges to buy. These homes may not be available for inspection and buyers may later discover the property needs numerous repairs. As a result, many of the homes at auction are purchased by investors and contractors who have experience working with homes needing numerous repairs, or taken back as REO by the foreclosing lenders.

• If a home does not sell to a third party at the trustee’s auction, the bank takes the property–the final stage of the foreclosure process. Although homes in this stage typically do not offer buyers the best prices, buyers generally can perform a thorough inspection of the property prior to closing.

To read the full story, please click here:

http://money.cnn.com/2010/05/04/real_estate/how_to_buy_a_foreclosure/index.htm?source=cnn_bin&hpt=Sbin

It took banks 27.9 percent longer, or 225 days, to foreclose on a property in California last month than it did in March 2009, and 0.45 percent longer than it did in February, according to data tracked by foreclosure data company ForeclosureRadar.com.

The foreclosure process is likely to take longer in the future, the report said, since banks delayed sending notice of trustee sale filings to borrowers until an average of 188 days had passed since the notice of default, up from 142 days in February.

That extra delay pushed ForeclosureRadar’s preforeclosure inventory estimate up 12.6 percent to 157,768, compared to February. The inventory estimate fell 12.1 percent year-over-year in March.

The inventory of bank-owned properties (REOs) in California dropped 26.5 percent year-over-year and 1.4 percent month-to-month, ForeclosureRadar reported.

Foreclosure filings have dived since last year, “when lenders caught up on a backlog of filings after delays caused by new notice requirements introduced in California Senate Bill 1137,” ForeclosureRadar’s report said.

The bill prevented lenders from issuing a notice of default before contacting the homeowner to explore options to avoid foreclosure and delayed filings for 30 days after that first contact.

Home sales decreased 11.7 percent in February in California compared with the same period a year ago, while the median price of an existing home rose 14.1 percent, per the CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® (C.A.R.).

“The federal tax credit for home buyers, low mortgage rates, and affordability at record levels have contributed to an unprecedented opportunity for many first-timers in the market for a home of their own,” said C.A.R. President Steve Goddard. “Although sales have declined from the unusually strong levels we experienced a year ago, they’ve remained above the 500,000 unit threshold for 18 consecutive months, while home prices continue to firm in the regions of the state most attractive to buyers taking advantage of today’s favorable market conditions.”

The median price of an existing, single-family detached home in California during February 2010 was $279,840, a 14.1 percent increase from the revised $245,230 median for February 2009, C.A.R. reported. The February 2010 median price decreased 2.4 percent compared with January’s $286,600 median price.

“Sales of distressed properties to investors and first-time buyers continued to drive the market in February, although at a lesser rate than a year ago,” said C.A.R. Vice President and Chief Economist Leslie Appleton-Young. “Supply continues to lag demand at the more affordable end of the market, with a 3.9 month supply of homes for sales priced below $300,000, compared with the long-run average of more than seven months. This contrasts sharply with the nearly 15-month supply of homes for sales priced at $1 million or more at the upper end of the market.”

Note: Large changes in local median home prices typically indicate both local home price appreciation, and often, large shifts in the composition of housing market activity. Some of the variations in median home prices for February may be exaggerated due to compositional changes in housing demand. The DataQuick tables listing median home prices in California cities and counties are accessible through C.A.R. Online at http://www.car.org:/marketdata/historicalprices/2010medianprices/feb2010medianprices/.

Three to four years ago when home prices were at their peak, there were people who wished they could have gone back in time to buy a house before prices went though the stratosphere.  At the same time, there were other people that decided to wait for prices to come down before buying a house. For both sets of people, it would appear that the time has come. Today prices have come down to the 2002 levels, so for the people that wanted to go back in time, here is your chance to go back to 2002. Now for the people who said they wanted to wait until prices come down, now is the time, because prices are at historic lows after being at historic highs. 
To keep things real, you’re going to have both sets of groups that will find fault with this line of reasoning. The ones who wanted to go back in time to 2000, (Home values doubled in many areas from 2000 to 2006.), its just not far back enough for them. They want the magic time machine to go back further to maybe, what like 1985? (The problem is, the 1980s experienced interest rates going up to 20% on home loans.)
For the people who were waiting for prices to come down until they bought, they want to see prices come down even lower! Say another 50%?
The old adage applies; “you can please some of the people some of the time, but you can’t please all of the people all of the time.” It would seem that the procrastinators waiting to buy a home will be saying the same thing when prices rise and they miss the boat, “again.”
Now out of those two groups, the ones that have a better chance to have their wish come true might be the ones looking for prices to come down, although it’s very doubtful they will see another 50% drop in value. They might see another 15-20%, but interest rates could increase, and decrease buying power.
With the vast changes to the real estate industry and the government’s involvement along with ever greater influences the Internet is having, it’s hard to see what the future holds.
But, looking back on the real estate industry over the past 60 years, appreciation has occurred. So if you’re in one of the groups of people that really wants to buy a home, now would be a good time to get an idea of what you can afford to buy and find a Real Estate agent to help you find a house that will fit your needs.

Related articles by Zemanta

• In Manhattan, the Real Estate Brokers Can ‘Breathe Again’  blogs.wsj.com)