Owners Question Appraised Values: Too Low?

Homeowners say their homes are worth more than what appraisers say they’re worth, and the gap between the values is growing, according to Quicken Loans’ latest Home Price Perception Index.

Appraisals, on average, were 1.77 percent lower than what homeowners expected, according to the index. This marks the fourth consecutive month in which the gap between homeowner estimates and appraiser opinions has widened.

That said, appraisals are showing higher values than what homeowners expected in some of the hottest housing markets, mainly on the West Coast, according to the index reading for March.

Source: Quicken Loans

Home Prices Blamed for Student Loan Defaults

The housing crisis may also have sparked the increase in student loan default rates, according to a working paper by the National Bureau of Economic Research.

The study says the drop in home prices during the Great Recession also coincided with a 24 to 32 percent rise in student loan default rates. Researchers looked at administrative student loan data along with ZIP code home price data for about 300,000 student loan borrowers in repayment.

Last year, more than 1 million federal student loan borrowers defaulted on their debt.

“The huge rise in student loan defaults is on everybody’s minds and the question is what’s the cause of this rise?” says Holger Mueller, one of the authors of the paper and a professor of finance at New York University’s Stern School of Business. “What we want to do is point to another very important source of default risk and that’s just the labor market.”

Source: “Why Lower Prices Lead to Higher Student Loan Default Rates,” MarketWatch (April 1, 2017)

Hispanics Are a Growing Home Buying Force

While the national homeownership rate decreases, ownership rates among Hispanics are defying the trend with steady rises.

The Hispanic homeownership rate grew to 46 percent last year, topping previous highs of 45.6 percent in 2015 and 45.4 percent in 2014, according to the National Association of Hispanic Real Estate Professionals’ 2016 State of Hispanic Homeownership Report.

More than 7.3 million Hispanic households owned their homes in 2016, 330,000 of which were from new households formed in 2016. That comprises 38 percent of all households formed, according to the report.

“The significance of a strong desire for homeownership cannot be overstated,” the report notes.

More information at: “Hispanic Homeownership Rate Rises for Second Straight Year,” RISMedia (March 28, 2017)

 

This Is the Worst ‘Housing Drought’ Ever

The number of homes for sale is at the lowest level on record, according to the National Association of REALTORS®, who began tracking inventory 18 years ago. That means many home buyers likely will find fewer options this spring, and the homes that are being listed tend to sell fast and at a premium.

The lack of new-home supply is one culprit. Housing starts are only at about 75 percent of their historical average. Builders are focusing on pricier segments of move-up buyers, leaving a big void in the demand for lower cost homes that appeal to first-time home buyers. Builders blame the higher costs for land, labor, and materials as forcing them to concentrate on the higher end of the market.

Builders aren’t the only ones to blame, however. Investors purchased about 4 million distressed properties—mostly in the lower-priced starter home segment—during the housing crash. They have been holding onto these properties, continuing to rent them out rather than selling.

Source: “This Is What’s Behind the Severe Housing Drought,” CNBC (March 23, 2017)

‘Energy Efficiency’ Weighted More in Appraisals

Energy efficiency scores will soon be included on appraisal forms in a handful of states. Builders are applauding the change, saying that will help give more credit for energy-saving features.

The Home Energy Rating System (HERS) Index is a numerical rating system that measures energy consumption compared to a standard house. The standard house has a score of 100. But a house that has a HERS index of 70, for example, would use 30 percent less energy. A home with a HERS index of 130, on the other hand, would consume 30 percent more energy. As such, the lower the HERS score, the lower the energy costs. The HERS score will be added to an existing green-building addendum that appraisers use.

More details at this source: “A Move Toward More Helpful Appraisals,” Greenbuildingadvisor.com (March 16, 2017)

 

This Could Boost Millions of Credit Scores

Equifax, Experian, and TransUnion announced they will soon remove tax lien and civil judgment data from some consumer credit records. The reason for this change is that many liens and most judgments fail to include vital pieces of information. Beginning on July 1, the public records data the firms use must include these data points: the consumer’s name, address, and either a social security number or a date of birth. Existing reports that fail to comply will be struck from the consumer’s credit record and new data that does not have that information will not be added.

Credit scores are weighed carefully by lenders in making decisions about loan terms and how much consumers can borrow, and can be very important in securing a sustainable mortgage. FICO estimates the changes will cause an improvement to about 12 million consumer scores; however the boost will be modest, likely less than 20 points.

In recent months, several lawsuits brought by states have been pushing credit reporting companies to remove some categories of negative data from credit score reports, such as information related to library fines or gym memberships. But some experts fear removing negative public record information could pose a greater risk to lenders.

Source: “Reporting Change Could Raise Credit Scores, Risk,” Mortgage News Daily (March 14, 2017)

How Will Housing Fare In the Next Decade?

Housing demand over the next decade will be significantly higher than it is today, predicts Lawrence Yun, the chief economist of the National Association of REALTORS®, in his latest column at Forbes.com. Rising populations and a growth in the job market likely will release a pent-up demand in housing over the next 10 years, he says.

The ages you’ll need to watch for in the housing market over the next decade: those in their 30s and 40s. The population of people in their 30s is expected to grow by 5 million over the next decade, reaching 48 million. Yun says that 12 percent increase likely will lead to more first-time home buyers. Plus, the number of Americans in their 40s will increase by 3 million, and he predicts they’ll be looking to trade up in real estate.

Overall, Yun notes, “Within reasonable parameters of economic growth and interest rate movements, home sales should do well over the next decade, clocking in at around 6 million a year.” The ages we’ll need to watch for in the housing market over the next decade: those in their 30s and 40s. The population of people in their 30s is expected to grow by 5 million over the next decade, reaching 48 million. Or course, every region will vary, what’s predicted for your market?

Source: “Housing Demand Over the Next Decade,” Forbes.com (March 2, 2017)

 

2017: Strong Year for Commercial Real Estate

Strengthening demand from smaller markets will help the commercial sector see stable growth and offer “decent” returns for investors in 2017, according to the National Association of REALTORS®’ quarterly commercial real estate forecast.

NAR predicts that the national office vacancy rate will drop 1.1 percentage points to 12.1 percent this year. Job growth in the business and professional services sector is expected to increase the need for office space in 2017. The apartment sector is expected to remain the top performer.

Further, the vacancy rate in the industrial space is predicted to drop 1.3 percentage points to 7.1 percent, while retail space availability will likely drop slightly by 0.7 percentage points to 11.2 percent. The multifamily sector will likely have little change to its vacancy rate over the next year as apartment completions stay at 6.5 percent, NAR reports.

Source: National Association of REALTORS®

Existing-Home Sales Reach Decade High

Existing-home sales in January reached their fastest pace in nearly a decade, with all major regions except the Midwest posting gains last month, the National Association of REALTORS® reports.

Total existing-home sales—completed transactions that include single-family homes, townhomes, condos, and co-ops—rose 3.3 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.69 million in January. That’s 3.8 percent higher than a year ago and marks the strongest month since February 2007, according to the NAR chief economist Lawrence Yun.

The REALTORS® Affordability Distribution Curve and Score, a new measurement of homebuying activity created by NAR and realtor.com®, revealed that the combination of higher mortgage rates and home prices made active listings less affordable for households in more than half of all states last month.

Source: National Association of REALTORS®

 

Don’t Underestimate Power of Pets

Pets are having more of an influence in home buying and selling as well as renovation, a new study by the National Association of REALTORS® shows. Eighty-one percent of Americans say that animal-related considerations play a role when deciding on their next living situation, according to the 2017 Animal House: Remodeling Impact report.

“In 2016, 61 percent of U.S. households either have a pet or plan to get one in the future, so it is important to understand the unique needs and wants of animal owners when it comes to homeownership ” says NAR President William E. Brown. “REALTORS® understand that when someone buys a home, they are buying it with the needs of their whole family in mind; ask pet owners, and they will enthusiastically agree that their animals are part of their family.”

99 percent of pet owners say they consider the animal part of the family. Eighty-nine percent of respondents say they would not give up their animal because of housing restrictions or limitations. Home owners are willing to move for their pets too. Twelve percent of pet owners have moved to accommodate their animal; 19 percent would consider moving to accommodate their animal in the future.

Source: National Association of REALTORS®