Welcome to the "Z" Team!

As housing inventories shrink, more buyers are reportedly finding their perfect home in properties that haven’t even been listed on the market yet. Our “Buyers Broker/Agent” objectives when working with clients are to seek and show these, FSBO’s, etc!

“Such back-pocket deals used to involve mostly luxury homes where buyers and sellers wanted to keep the sale hush-hush,” The Star Tribune reports. “But lower-priced houses are becoming a bigger part of the mix because even those are in short supply.”

As real estate professionals we are helping buyers sniff out these unlisted homes by working to identify sellers who would like to sell but are unsure if the market will give them enough on a sale. We find these sellers through referrals and also by home owners who once listed their homes for sale but removed their homes from the MLS after they lingered on the market. Please provide your objectives and we’ll work for you!

Source: “Impatient Buyers Target Homes Before They go on Sale,” Star Tribune (Minneapolis) (April 28, 2012)

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Although we see the foreclosure activity may be declining, the problem is far from over! There have been 5 million foreclosures since 2007, reports the Center for Responsible Lending, which estimates that between 3 million and 5 million more will occur over the next couple of years nationwide.  

Some of the consequences of foreclosures are obvious: family displacements, crime in vacant properties, ruined credit, and the loss of equity. Other, less obvious consequences have emerged as well. About 8 million children could be affected, including kids of home owners and renters who were evicted due to a foreclosure. Julia Isaacs of the Brookings Institution calls these children the “invisible victims” of the foreclosure crisis, as foreclosures not only can cause emotional trauma, but also interfere with a child’s educational development.

Researchers also have found a connection between rising foreclosures and an increase in medical visits for mental health, such as anxiety, or preventable conditions such as high blood pressure. Plus, let’s don’t forget possible job related problems. 

Our region is strapped because of a loss of property tax revenue caused by foreclosures, which can lead to cuts in services — including fire protection, senior centers, and local law enforcement. Please provide comments about your local market contitions. 

Source: “Three Hidden Costs of the Foreclosure Crisis,” MarketWatch (4/ 24/12)

Last year, some of us complained about receiving really low offers on listed homes. Offers usually submitted by the buyer for 25 percent or more below the list price, according to a recent  National Association of REALTORS® survey of its members. That number has dropped by about the same percentage in our local market area.

According to a survey this March of 4,500 agents and brokers, no REALTORS® complained about low-ball offers. The main problem nowadays: The sudden drop in inventory of for-sale homes has led to fewer homes available to sell.

For home buyers who still think they have a chance of hitting it lucky with a low-ball offer, they’re finding in many markets that their offers are more often being rejected or countered closer to the original asking price, the Los Angeles Times reports. Please comment, is your local market reflecting similar changes?

Source: “Low-ball Offers Decline in Some Housing Markets,” Los Angeles Times (4/22/12)

Let’s look at the total picture of reality as it relates to today’s family home dreams!

 About 8 million children have been hurt by foreclosure, according to a newly-released report by First Focus, a bipartisan advocacy group for families. “Children are the often invisible victims of the foreclosure crisis,” says Julia Isaacs, the author of the report.

The report highlights the widespread affect the foreclosure crisis has had on the nation’s children: About 2.3 million children have lived in homes lost to foreclosure; 3 million have lived in homes at-risk of foreclosure; and another 3 million have lived in rental homes lost to foreclosure or currently live in rentals that are at-risk of foreclosure.

The foreclosure impact has been greatest on children in Nevada, where nearly one in five — or 20 percent — of children lived or live in a home that was lost to foreclosure or is at-risk of being lost to foreclosure. In Florida, 15 percent of children have been affected by foreclosure, followed by Arizona (14%) and California (12%).

Foreclosures have been found to hamper children’s performance at school. Children who have been affected by foreclosure often see math and reading scores drop as much as if they’d missed school for a month, Isaacs says. Please provide your comments.

Source: “Report Estimates 8 Million Children Hurt by Foreclosures”  USA Today (4/18/12)

Start of a new trend? Banks are agreeing to more short sales, and for the first time, short sale transactions are exceeding foreclosure deals, according to the most recent housing data from Lender Processing Services (LPS) Inc. “It’s a fairly recent phenomenon that short sales have been increasing,” Jonathon Weiner, a vice president with LPS, told Bloomberg News.

So why are banks getting more agreeable to short sales? Banks are realizing that short sale transactions usually sell for higher prices than foreclosures. In fact, foreclosed homes tend to sell for 29 percent less, on average, than comparable non-distressed properties. Short sales tend to sell at a 23 percent discount, according to Lending Processing Services data from January.

Banks and government agencies in recent weeks have taken steps to speed up the short sale process, setting new timelines for how long mortgage servicers have to respond to short sales offers. Also, some banks, such as Wells Fargo and JPMorgan Chase, are even offering some home owners cash incentives — up to $35,000 — if they agree to do a short sale instead of let the home fall into foreclosure.

Source: “Short Sales Surpass Foreclosures as Banks Agree to Deals,” Bloomberg News (April 17, 2012)

We see investors are buying up foreclosures, viewing the potential returns from REOs-to-rentals as better than most other investments. But, are they the “Best Buys?”

Investors some times take on more than they can handle, and do not devote enough attention — and budget — into the rehabilitation of many of the properties they buy.

Nearly 95 percent of distressed homes are in bad shape and unsuitable for renting out, Morgan Stanley analysts estimate. Correcting conditions could require permits, etc! 

“The importance of getting construction — or specifically, re-construction or rehabilitation — right cannot be overstated,” according to a recent report sent to Morgan Stanley clients. “The quality and cost of rehabilitation can continue to benefit or haunt the asset far past the initial completion of work. For example, shoddy plumbing or other infrastructure work can result in significantly higher maintenance costs over time, and can also affect eventual exit pricing.”

Morgan Stanley provided estimates to investors in the report, citing estimates of renovation work to cost about 25 percent of the purchase price. Your thoughts?

Source: “Rehabilitation Vital to REO-to-Rental Success,” HousingWire (4/13/12)

The nationwide inventory of residential homes for-sale dropped 21 percent in March compared to a year ago, according to newly released housing data from Realtor.com, tracking 146 metro markets. Nearly all 146 markets posted a drop in their inventory!

Other good news, the nationwide median list price in March also saw improvement, increasing more than 5 percent last month compared to last year at this time.

Our area housing picture is much different than last year at this time, when inventory was up around 25 percent and list prices were down about 5 percent.

“If the market continues to hold its own, 2012 could well mark the beginning of a broad-based housing recovery,” according to Realtor.com. Let’s hope this becomes reality.

The California regions posting the biggest drops in the top 12, last year were:

1. Oakland, Calif.: -51.91 percent year-over-year drop in total listings

2. Bakersfield, Calif.: -50.35 percent

4. Fresno, Calif.: -45.56 percent

12. Stockton-Lodi, Calif.: -36.18 percent

Source of data: Melissa Dittmann Tracey, REALTOR® Magazine Daily News

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The El Dorado County, California region strikes Gold again? Investors are buying foreclosure bargains and then turning the properties into money-making rentals, which has some drawing comparisons to another “Gold Rush” of sorts. 

Diane Gozza, the executive vice president of Integrated Mortgage Solutions in Houston, recently wrote in an article for National Mortgage News that investors are eyeing the properties similar to how those risk-takers did back in the 1848 California “Gold Rush,” who also had dreams of striking it rich.

They have plenty to choose from: The government-sponsored enterprises, which includes Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, own more than 200,000 single-family foreclosed homes, and banks own about 600,000 more. To help accelerate the “rush,” the Federal Housing Finance Administration recently launched a pilot foreclosure-to-rental program, offering up investors the chance to bid on 2,500 foreclosure properties owned by Fannie. But some housing experts have argued that such REO-rental programs aren’t needed because investors are already flooding the market to buy up foreclosures and a government intervention isn’t necessary. (Read “NAR: REO Rental Programs Largely Unnecessary” and “Calif. Lawmakers Oppose REO Rental Program“)

“Taking into account the enormous stockpile of REO properties currently held by the GSEs, the auction and bulk investment in REO to rental properties may indeed be the next gold rush,” Gozza writes. “Much in the spirit of the 1848 gold rush, there will be risks and tough lessons learned. But, this private-sector imitative has the potential to be the catalyst for housing market recovery.”

Source: “Tapping into the Next ‘Gold Rush,’”  National Mortgage News (4/10/12)

More see now is a good time to buy! Home buyers may begin to jump off the sidelines this spring as they get more urgent about purchasing a home, fearing that home price and mortgage rate increases are on the horizon.

Housing surveys in recent weeks have shown that more Americans are seeing now a great time to purchase a home. In the most recent survey, 73 percent of Americans say now is a good time to buy, according to the latest Fannie Mae Housing Survey conducted in March. That’s up from 70 percent in February who said it was a great time to buy.

“Conditions are coming together to encourage people to want to buy homes,” says Doug Duncan, Fannie Mae’s chief economist. “With an increasing share of consumers expecting higher mortgage rates and home prices over the next 12 months, some may feel that renting is becoming more costly and that home ownership is a more compelling housing choice.” Is your local market concurring these forecast?

Indeed, more buyer urgency is evident in the market. Thirty-three percent of those surveyed by Fannie say they expect home prices soon to increase, which is the highest percentage in a year. What’s more, nearly 40 percent say they expect mortgage rates to rise in the next year too, which is also up from previous surveys. We recommend checking with a local lender for your qualifications, down payments and loan type.   

Source: “More Americans Think It’s Time to Buy a Home,” MSN Real Estate (April 9, 2012)

“High gasoline prices provided the trigger that burst the [housing] bubble,” says JunJie Wu, an Oregon State economist and one of the authors of a new study that blames high gas prices as the main culprit for the housing crisis that started in 2007.

“The theory recognizes the role of subprime mortgages and lax lending practices as inflating the housing bubble,” Wu says, but a spike in gas prices was the “trigger.”

The new study, conducted by economists at University of California, Berkeley, and Oregon State University, attempts to pinpoint the cause of the housing crisis. The researchers say that while the housing market is blamed on initiating the 2007 financial crisis, researchers have found little consensus on what actually caused the housing crisis in the first place.

The researchers offer rising gas prices as the main culprit, noting that oil prices more than doubled between late 2006 and 2008 to $4.15 per gallon.

“The real estate mantra is ‘location, location, location,’” Wu says. “If you find yourself in a location that is far from work and transportation costs rise suddenly, that location can lower the value of your house.”

The researchers note that mortgage default rates were highest in commuter areas. Also, low-income households and suburban homes located away from business centers were the most vulnerable. We see these trends in our region, what about yours?

Source: “Some Economists Say High Gas Prices Triggered Housing Crisis,” RISMedia (4/8/12)